May 10, 2011

Cullen Roche: Profit Margin Compression

"With earnings season largely finished we are beginning to generate some solid conclusions. One persistent trend this earnings season has been margin compression across many companies as costs surge."

Cullen Roche, in The Pramatic Capitalism

Doug Kass: Another Leg Down In Home Prices

”I now expect another leg down in home prices of at least 5% and probably closer to 10%.”

Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners and CNBC Contributor

Doug Kass: The Housing Market Will Be The Catalyst For A Bear Market

”My father was a dentist and he always used to tell me your mouth is central to the health of your body. It’s the same thing with housing. Housing is central to the health of our domestic economy.”

Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners and CNBC Contributor

Related: Lennar Corp. (LEN), KB Home (KBH), Toll Brothers (TOL), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

March 8, 2011

Silver Offers Both A Shield Against Monetary Turmoil And Exposure To Market Growth

"While gold most effectively insures the investor against economic devastation, silver offers both a shield against monetary turmoil and exposure to market growth." - Peter Schiff

January 27, 2011

Livermore Quote: The Importance Of Buying At The Right Time

"It isn’t as important to buy as cheap as possible as it is to buy at the right time." — Jesse Livermore

January 26, 2011

Speculation In Its Purest Form

"If the unusual never happened there would be no difference in people and then there wouldn't be any fun in life. The game would become merely a matter of addition and subtraction. It would make of us a race of bookkeepers with plodding minds. It's the guessing that develops a man's brain power. Just consider what you have to do to guess right." - Jesse Livermore

January 20, 2011

Tom DEMark Sees Major Top On US Stocks

"U.S. stocks are within a week of “a significant market top” that is likely to precede a drop of at least 11 percent in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, said Tom DeMark, creator of a set of market-timing indicators.

DeMark’s Sequential and Combo indicators, designed to identify market tops and bottoms, are giving a sell signal on the main U.S. stock benchmark for the first time since mid-2007." - in Bloomberg

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

January 18, 2011

Don`t Observe The Market From A Contaminated Perspective

"There is a direct correlation between your ability to let the market tell you what it is likely to do next and the degree to which you have released yourself from the negative effects of any beliefs about losing, being wrong, and revenge on the markets. Not being aware of this relationship, most traders will continue to observe the market from a contaminated perspective." -The Disciplined Trader, Mark Douglas

January 14, 2011

How Does A Bull Market End?

"And there is another thing to remember, and that is that a market does not culminate in one grand blaze of glory. Neither does it end with a sudden reversal of form. A market can and does often cease to be a bull market long before prices generally begin to break." in Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator

This is a must read book for all aspiring traders.

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

January 13, 2011

Do Not Repeat Mistakes.

Another fantastic stock market quote that I have found today while surfing the web, “Mistakes are part of the game. Making the same mistake repeatedly is not. At least it’s not part of any successful trader’s game.” - Mark Wolfinger

Time For A Stock Market Correction?

Interesting recent stock market commentary from Fred Wilson, “The financial markets will come and go. Sometimes investors are focused on the downside. Other times they are focused on the upside. Right now it is the latter. “

I think its time for a stock market correction.

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

January 10, 2011

An Interesting Bullish Call On Japanese Equities

"In a recent strategy note Credit Suisse analysts noted the risk of rising interest rates and the potential beneficiaries in such an environment. In their opinion the #1 trade in a rising interest rate environment is not an inflation or hyperinflation hedge, but rather a high beta growth equity market – Japan. Based on data compiled by Credit Suisse they’ve found a near 1:1 correlation between Japanese equities and US interest rates over the last decade. The rational is rather simple – because rising rates tend to be accompanied by periods of higher growth Japan’s volatile high beta market tends to be a significant beneficiary. In addition, after years of deleveraging rising interest rates put less pressure on Japan’s underleveraged corporations and are likely to pressure on the Yen via an increasing dollar (via Credit Suisse):

From a regional point of view, the winner of rising bond yields is Japan: (i) historically it outperforms 73% of the time (by an average of 8%) when US bond yields rise. In particular, the rise in real bond yield reflects a rise in growth expectations – and Japan, as the country with highest operational leverage, should benefit from such a rise. (ii) Japan’s corporate sector is very underleveraged. (iii) Higher bond yields should put downward pressures on the Yen."


in The Prag Cap

January 9, 2011

There Are 4 Kinds Of Bets.

“There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future. You can also lose a good bet, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.” – Larry Hite, Trader

January 6, 2011

LinkedIn Trying To Surpass Facebook`s IPO

"LinkedIn, the social networking site for professionals, plans to go public in 2011 and has selected its financial underwriters, three sources familiar with the process told Reuters.

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and JPMorgan are among the book runners, these sources said. Bankers made their pitches to the privately-held company in November, one of the sources said.

"An IPO is just one of many tactics that we could consider," a spokesman for LinkedIn said on Wednesday. He declined further comment.

Internet companies such as LinkedIn and Zynga, a popular maker of online social games, are considering offerings well ahead of a potential IPO of Facebook, two sources said.

"Some of these companies want to go public because they want to beat Facebook and others out," said one of the sources. "If Facebook went public before Linkedin, do you think anyone would pay that much attention to Linkedin?" You might want to surpass the beast."" - in Yahoo Finance

January 5, 2011

Auto Sales Show Strength Of The Economy

"December auto sales continued to register impressive gains, rising at a 17% annual rate since hitting bottom early last year; moreover, sales are up at a very impressive 25% annual rate in the past six months. December sales beat estimates by 1.9%. Although the pace of sales is still low from an historical perspective, the recovery to date has been very impressive. This is a strong vote of confidence in an ongoing recovery, and a sign that consumers are in better shape than is commonly thought, given the still-high level of unemployment. The fact that sales have been exceeding expectations for some time now, without the help of government subsidies, means that there will undoubtedly be ripple effects throughout the economy as production targets ramp up to meet unexpectedly strong demand. What's good for General Motors, as they say, is good for the economy. Unquestionably bullish." - in Calafia Beach Pundit

Ford Motor (F) stock chart:












Related: Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) , Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:TM) , HONDA MOTOR CO., LTD. (ADR) (NYSE:HMC) , HONDA MOTOR CO., LTD. (TYO:7267) , Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (TYO:7201), Daimler AG (ETR:DAI), Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (ETR:BMW), Volkswagen AG (ETR:VOW)

December 31, 2010

"Those who have succeeded at anything and don't mention luck are kidding themselves." - Larry King

December 26, 2010

Is The Street Too Optimistic?

"In Barron’s look-ahead piece, not one strategist sees the prospect for a market decline. This is called group-think. Moreover, the percentage of brokerage house analysts and economists to raise their 2011 GDP forecasts has risen substantially. Out of 49 economists surveyed, 35 say the U.S. economy will outperform the already upwardly revised GDP forecasts, only 14 say we will underperform. This is capitulation of historical proportions." in The Big Picture

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

December 22, 2010

Goldman Sachs: 2011 Will Be The Year Of The USA.

Improving growth, falling unemployment and a sense that the U.S. is returning to "normal" could fuel a 20 percent stock market gain and make 2011 the "Year of the USA," according to Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill.

Jim O'Neill,expressed the view this week that the U.S. will be a bright spot in the world economy, with growth rates of 3.4 percent in 2011 and 3.8 percent in 2012.

"This growth is likely to be strong and robust enough to lead to declining unemployment which, if correct, should mean that the worst of the social consequences of the credit crisis should start to ease. Bond yields should continue to rise further, and the dollar could rally quite a bit."

Related: General Electric Company (NYSE:GE), 3M Company (NYSE:MMM), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE), Bank of America Corporation (Public, NYSE:BAC) , Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) , Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) , MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) , United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X), Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) , Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN)

December 21, 2010

The Public Is Always The Last In.

"History shows us that the public tends to be the last in. From the shoeshine boy in the roaring 1920s, to buyers of the Nifty-Fifty in the Sixties, then dot com stocks in the 1990s, and once again with bonds in the 2000s, main street joins Wall Street when their greed overwhelms their better sense. It is sad but don’t blame me, I am only pointing out this truth.

Don’t be surprised if the public’s rush into commodities marks that as a top, as well — including Gold."


in The Big Picture

Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA), Powershares DB Base Metals Fund (ETF) (NYSE:DBB), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO)

December 20, 2010

Australian Dollar Is Fully Valued. Not Advocating Long Positions.

“While the Australian dollar has good fundamentals in terms of interest rates, its valuation means we’re not recommending buying it at the moment. The same goes for the New Zealand dollar.”

Bilal Hafeez, head of currency strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London

Related: CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSE:FXA)